The Nasdaq-100’s bounce after a roughly 15% drop puts its next advance in focus, with Frank Cappelleri, founder and president of CappThesis, saying its progress may help distinguish a routine correction from a longer downturn.
Cappelleri’s analysis appeared on CNBC on Nov. 13. Before the rebound, the index had approached 26,350, a downside objective in a bearish chart pattern, after a September breakout failed, his analysis said.
The index had fallen more than 10% below its October record high, entering correction territory in the move covered in our earlier report on the Nasdaq-100’s correction and QQQ’s 200-day average.
Cappelleri’s chart compares declines from 52-week peaks in a record that begins shortly after the financial crisis. Drops of more than 20% appear only a few times. Cappelleri highlighted past Nasdaq-100 declines of about 15% to 25% that were followed by recoveries, sometimes after further losses. Cappelleri cited late 2018, the 2020 pandemic low and April 2025 as examples of relatively quick reversals. The 2022 decline was a larger exception, reaching nearly 36% over about 10 months.
The current bounce began in an area between 25,000 and 26,000, where Cappelleri’s chart places three reference points. They include an upward-sloping line connecting lows in early 2025 and early 2026, a 38.2% retracement of the 2025-26 advance, and the previous year’s highs, which later became a breakout area.
Cappelleri said the index need not reach a fresh high immediately. If a recovery ends below the previous peaks, it could mark a significant lower high; repeated lower peaks would add evidence of a longer downtrend. He cited March 2022, when a rally fell short of the earlier high before a sharper decline. Renewed heavy selling could restart downside momentum, he said.
