National Bank of Poland to stay on hold

National Bank of Poland's MPC ended easing cycle in March In March, the MPC cut all rates by 50bp, with the key rate lowered to 1.50%. The council emphasised that this was the end of monetary policy easing. Its message was very clear: By the end of MPC term, no immediate change in interest rates should be expected. 

MPC member Anna Zielinska-Glebocka confirmed that "the room for easing monetary policy for now has been exhausted." A similar view was expressed by Andrzej Kazmierczak, who said that the council "came to the conclusion that the current level of rates is the floor as we need to take into account both the conditions in the real economy and on the financial markets. From that point of view it is desirable that we have higher interest rates than in the euro zone."

According to Societe Generale, the MPC will keep the key interest rate at 1.5% at its upcoming meeting and will keep rates unchanged until at least Q1 next year.
Rate cuts will likely become a possibility only in the event of significant PLN appreciation against the EUR or a significant oil price decrease.