SK Hynix to Invest $13 Billion in AI Chip Packaging Facility 
China Food Delivery Stocks Dip as Regulators Crack Down on “Ghost Deliveries” 
Rising Jet Fuel Costs from Iran Conflict Push Airfare Higher Across Europe 
John Ternus Signals Apple’s Future with Product-First AI Strategy 
Ethiopian Airlines Expands Fleet with New Boeing 787 Dreamliner Order to Boost Global Routes 
SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell Earns $85.8M as IPO Buzz Grows 
Nidec Stock Rises After Accounting Probe Report Eases Delisting Concerns 
J.P. Morgan Downgrades Essity AB on Rising Costs and Weak Earnings Outlook 
Jeff Bezos Eyes $10 Billion Funding Round for AI Venture Project Prometheus 
Chinese Robotics Stocks React as Humanoid Robot Marathon Sparks Competition Concerns 
OPmobility Reports Q1 Revenue Dip Amid Automotive Industry Slowdown 
Indonesia and Toyota Explore $300M Bioethanol Investment to Boost Renewable Energy Goals 
How Technology Is Reshaping Modern Business: From Operations to Customer Experience 
NVIDIA Acquisition Rumors Dismissed by Morgan Stanley as Strategically Flawed 
Polymarket Seeks $400M Funding Round, Targets $15B Valuation Amid Prediction Market Boom 
Indian Refiners Use Yuan via ICICI Bank to Pay for Iranian Oil Under U.S. Sanctions Waiver 
JAPEX Shares Drop as Middle East Tensions Drive LNG Costs and Production Risks 
WASHINGTON, Jan. 21, 2016 -- Sen. Ted Cruz has rocketed to the top of the Iowa polls, and to second in national polls, on the strength of backing from religious and Tea Party "very conservative" voters. But a new book shows that won't be enough to elect the brilliant but controversial first term lawmaker. According to co-authors Henry Olsen and Dante Scala, Cruz can win only by winning over the very establishment conservatives he has built his career by antagonizing.
Olsen and Scala's new book, Four Faces of the Republican Party: The Fight for the 2016 Presidential Nomination, uses twenty years of exit poll data to break the GOP into four ideological factions. "Very conservative evangelicals," who are 20-25 percent of the party, and "very conservative seculars," who are 10-15 percent of the party, are Cruz's base. Polls show that Cruz leads the field, even Donald Trump, among these two groups. But together these factions are 35-40 percent of the Party. To win, Cruz needs to capture at least one of the other factions.
Moderates, who are 25-30 percent of the GOP, are the group least likely to back the vociferously conservative Texas Senator. So to win, the authors conclude, Cruz must turn to the group he has criticized the most: the establishment "somewhat conservative".
"'Somewhat conservatives' are the most powerful and the least understood of the GOP's four factions," says co-author Henry Olsen, a Senior Fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center. "These voters are conservative in both senses of the word: they favor movement conservative ideals but are also classically cautious and suspicious of rapid change. These are the voters who prefer John Boehner or Mitch McConnell to the Tea Party - and they are the largest faction in the GOP."
Olsen and Scala show that "somewhat conservatives" are about 35-40 percent of the GOP, and they are the only faction that has backed every GOP nominee in the last four election cycles. When they allied with moderates, they nominated Bob Dole, John McCain, and Mitt Romney. When they allied with the two "very" conservative factions, they nominated George W. Bush.
"The path to the nomination runs through the 'Boehner conservatives'," Olsen said. "That will be a very tough challenge for Sen. Cruz to meet."
Four Faces of the Republican Party is available from PalgraveMacMillan. Olsen is a Senior Fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center. Scala is a professor at the University of New Hampshire.
CONTACT: Audrey Mullen, 202-270-2772, [email protected]
