Below-normal storage and uncertain additional liquefied natural gas supplies put Europe's winter gas balance in focus as Norway's September output missed forecast despite staying above its year-earlier level.
Preliminary figures show September's daily average at 298.4 million standard cubic meters, versus 341.6 million in August. Output missed forecast by 6.7%, while standing 5.1% above September 2025; gas sales came to 9.0 billion standard cubic meters, down from 10.6 billion the prior month.
In 2025, Norwegian gas made up 31% of the EU's natural gas imports. Ahead of winter, the bloc's storage was below historical levels, while the availability of additional LNG remained uncertain.
A reference-winter scenario suggests the gas system could meet demand if LNG imports rise. With extra supply uncertain, some colder-winter scenarios could leave demand unmet.
Norway finished its annual offshore maintenance program on schedule during September. The associated shutdowns happened less often and lasted a shorter time than in previous years; disruption to gas transport capacity was limited. The data do not show how much the work contributed to September's production decline.
