Initiative Energien Speichern e.V. (INES) said Germany could face gas shortages in an exceptionally cold winter after storage entered November at 61% of capacity.
The Nov. 1 reading was nine percentage points below the roughly 70% nationwide level implied by Germany’s storage rules. Those rules set targets of 80% for most facilities and 45% for six named sites.
In an Oct. 27 assessment, Germany’s Federal Network Agency described gas supply as stable and the risk of strain as low. It considered demand, pipeline deliveries, liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports and infrastructure alongside storage. EconoTimes previously covered Germany’s storage levels and the agency’s assessment.
The November update to INES’s recurring scenarios examines how supply would hold up under different winter temperatures. It finds enough gas for normal or warm conditions. With temperatures matching the cold 2010 reference year, however, demand could exceed supply in January, February and March 2027.
The projected gap reaches as much as 6.6 terawatt-hours (TWh) in a month and 1.7 TWh on individual January days. That extreme-cold result persists when the model includes extra imports from neighbors with fuller storage and assumes use of all bookable LNG terminal capacity.
INES linked the low starting inventory to heavy withdrawals late in the 2025-26 winter and weak commercial incentives to refill storage. Stocks began declining again in October, before the months of highest gas demand.
The group proposed a mechanism to cover the difference between storage costs and market value, or rules requiring market participants to use storage facilities. Its next scenario update is scheduled for Jan. 12, 2027. The Federal Network Agency is also monitoring a storage requirement for Feb. 1, 2027.
