Norwegian retail sales rise marginally in November

Norwegian retail sales rose marginally above consensus expectations in November. On a sequential basis, retail sales grew 0.9 percent, as compared with consensus expectations of a rise of 0.8 percent. The October’s growth rate was 0.2 percent. The index, in the past three months, was 0.1 percent higher than the previous non-overlapping 3m period.

Goods consumption was also includes car sales, fuel and electricity and correlates more with goods consumption in the national accounts were up 0.3 percent sequentially in November. Car and fuel sales were up while electricity consumption dropped. The three-month-on-three-month growth for the goods consumption dropped 0.6 percent. With no growth in December, the goods consumption is expected to fall 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter, noted DNB Markets in a research report.

The underlying trend in retail sales is still roughly flat. Black Friday sale is an expanding activity that has been expanding in the past few years, and the effect is not fully reflected in the estimated seasonal factors.

“As sales are moved from December to November, the December seasonal factors may be overestimated and the next month’s December retail sales figures may be on the weak side. Over all these figures will not change the outlook for private consumption or the mainland activity. If financial markets volatility fades, we continue to expect Norges Bank to raise rates in March next year”, added DNB Markets.