November retail sales shows a healthy US consumer demand

US retail sales rose 0.2% m/m in November (previous: 0.1%), in line with forecast and one-tenth below median consensus expectations. Broad-based strength across many core categories drove the retail control group, preferred measures of core retail sales, to rise 0.6% m/m (forecast: 0.5%). Sales ex-autos rose 0.4% m/m (previous: 0.1%), as nominal motor vehicle sales, first reported in unit terms by manufacturers, declined 0.4% m/m at the retail level in November. Lower gasoline prices dragged stations sales down 0.8% m/m (previous: -1.0%).

Outside of these two categories, however, nearly all other retailers reported stronger sales. Sales gains at restaurants (0.7% m/m, previous: 0.3%), grocery stores (0.7% m/m, previous: -0.2%), electronics stores (0.6% m/m, previous: -0.1%), clothing stores (0.8% m/m, previous: -0.5%), general merchandise stores (0.7% m/m, previous: -0.1%) and online (0.6% m/m, previous: 1.4%) all support the view that US consumer spending trends remain healthy.

"We expect further employment and household income gains to continue to support private consumption growth. Stronger-than-expected core retail sales in November boosted our tracking estimate of Q4 real consumption growth one-tenth, to 2.5%. This, in turn, boosted our Q4 GDP tracking estimate one-tenth, to 1.8%", says Barclays.