Nvidia Earnings Preview: AI Chip Demand, Data Center Growth and Blackwell Shipments in Focus

Nvidia is poised to report another quarter of strong growth, with Wall Street anticipating upbeat guidance driven by accelerating demand for AI infrastructure, rising shipments of next-generation Blackwell chips, and sustained data center spending. As the company prepares to release its fiscal fourth-quarter results, analysts remain largely optimistic about Nvidia’s revenue trajectory and long-term AI investment cycle.

Stifel analyst Ruben Roy said expectations for the quarter remain aligned with his prior outlook, highlighting a well-understood acceleration in AI-related demand despite lingering concerns about the long-term sustainability of AI infrastructure spending. He maintains a bullish stance, describing Nvidia as still in the early stages of what could be a prolonged AI infrastructure investment cycle. Recent discussions with management at CES and stronger hyperscaler capital expenditure forecasts for 2026 suggest consensus estimates may move higher following the earnings report.

KeyBanc analyst John Vinh projects fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $69 billion, with first-quarter guidance potentially reaching $74 billion to $75 billion. Growth is expected to be fueled by the ramp-up of Blackwell B300 and GB300 chip shipments, which command higher average selling prices. Vinh estimates that China-bound H200 shipments could contribute $3 billion to $3.5 billion in the current quarter and an additional $2 billion to $3 billion in the April quarter. He also forecasts a 24% sequential increase in data center revenue and a 27% rise in compute revenue, though GDDR memory shortages may pressure gaming results.

Market strategists note that Nvidia stock has traded between $170 and $195 in recent months as investors assess AI returns, competition, and margins. However, strong earnings, robust forward guidance, and continued cloud spending momentum could act as a catalyst for a breakout, with implications for the broader stock market.