Oil futures rose in October as U.S. Treasury yields fell, with Reuters citing supply concerns and CNBC reporting that BlackRock portfolio manager Jeffrey Rosenberg saw AI-related growth fears reshaping bond-market thinking.
Reuters reported Brent crude futures rose 13.6% for the month and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures gained 15.2%. U.S. Treasury data show the 10-year daily par yield declined from 5.24% on Oct. 1 to 4.94% on Oct. 30, a drop of 30 basis points.
Reuters connected crude’s advance to supply concerns related to the Iran war, including an attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. December Brent futures expired Friday, Oct. 30, with a settlement of $117.64 a barrel, while WTI settled at $104.12, Reuters reported. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) separate WTI spot-price series recorded $99.77 on Oct. 1 and $103.37 on Tuesday, Oct. 27, its latest October reading.
Rosenberg, a senior portfolio manager at BlackRock’s Systematic Alternatives ETF, told CNBC that investors appeared more concerned about an AI-driven growth slowdown than geopolitical oil risks. The Associated Press reported that Alphabet Class A shares fell 12.6% on Thursday, Oct. 29, after quarterly results renewed questions about returns on AI investments. AP said the drop was the shares’ largest daily loss in more than two decades of trading.
At a Wednesday, Oct. 28 news conference, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said interest rates had “rolled over to the downside.” The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept its target range at 3.75% to 4%. The Fed characterized economic activity as strong and said inflation remained elevated.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimated real U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, following 2.2% growth in the second. BEA said investment, consumer spending and government activity supported the increase; information-processing equipment led within equipment investment. Warsh also said business capital spending was broadening.
BEA’s second estimate of third-quarter GDP and corporate profits is scheduled for Nov. 25 at 8:30 a.m. EST. The Federal Reserve’s next scheduled meeting is Dec. 8-9.
