Oil Prices Steady as Iran-U.S. Nuclear Talks and OPEC+ Output Plans Shape Market Outlook

Oil prices traded in a narrow range on Monday as investors closely monitored upcoming Iran-U.S. nuclear talks and weighed the potential impact on global crude supply. Concerns that escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran could disrupt oil flows helped support prices, while expectations that OPEC+ may resume output increases from April capped gains.

Brent crude futures slipped 3 cents to $67.72 per barrel by 0156 GMT after finishing 23 cents higher in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 3 cents to $62.86 per barrel. There was no WTI settlement on Monday due to a U.S. holiday. Last week, both oil benchmarks recorded declines, with Brent crude down roughly 0.5% and WTI losing about 1%, as renewed optimism over a potential diplomatic breakthrough pressured prices.

Market sentiment shifted after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested that Washington could reach a deal with Iran within the next month. The two countries recently resumed negotiations aimed at resolving their long-standing dispute over Iran’s nuclear program and avoiding further military escalation. A second round of talks is scheduled to take place in Geneva on Tuesday.

An Iranian diplomat indicated that Tehran is pursuing a nuclear agreement that could unlock economic benefits, including energy and mining investments and potential aircraft purchases. However, analysts remain cautious. IG market analyst Tony Sycamore noted that expectations for a swift agreement are low, warning that the current stability in crude oil prices may represent a temporary pause in volatility.

Meanwhile, geopolitical risks remain elevated. The United States has deployed a second aircraft carrier to the region, preparing for potential military action if negotiations fail. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have warned of retaliation against U.S. military bases in the event of an attack.

At the same time, OPEC+ is reportedly leaning toward resuming oil output hikes from April after a three-month pause to meet anticipated peak summer demand. Analysts suggest that without the geopolitical risk premium tied to Iran-U.S. tensions, WTI crude could be trading below $60 per barrel. Global trading activity is expected to remain subdued due to public holidays in China, South Korea, and Taiwan.