Oil dependency has likely gone down in Mexico

Mexico's dependency on oil revenues has declined substantially, particularly as a result of a fiscal reform that strengthened tax revenues. These have reached 13.6% of GDP in 2015 (YTD), almost 5.2pp higher than in 2012. 

The markets are aware of this, as the sensitivity of 5y CDS in Mexico has decreased in the past few years, despite oil's being an important driver for credit. This suggests that the recent widening in risk premia owes to the overall sentiment in emerging markets, rather than specific concerns about credit quality in Mexico.

In that sense, the outlook for public finances is much more solid, as these are permanent sources of income, this increment has offset the decline in oil revenues derived from a lower price and decreased oil production. 

"Being long Mexico credit via local rates is recommended as fiscal conditions in Mexico will likely remain tight in the coming quarters, supporting fundamentals and low rates for longer", says Barclays.