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Oil in Global Economy Series: OPEC May deal compliance review

Since November 2016, when OPEC members agreed to cut production for the first time since the Great Recession, to the tune of 1.76 million barrels per day, it became a cornerstone for the oil market and one the key factors for the recent bullish oil market.

The recent downside correction also suggests the same. The latest decline in oil price was triggered by the announcement from Saudi Arabia and Russia that OPEC might ease production cap by a million barrels per day.

WTI is currently trading at $66.2 per barrel and Brent at $9.7 per barrel premium to WTI.

 

Target as per OPEC deal
 (million barrel per day)

May production
 (million barrel per day)

 

April production
 (million barrel per day)

Algeria

1.039

1.031

 

0.997

Angola

1.673

1.525

 

1.515

Ecuador

0.522

0.519

 

0.52

Gabon

0.193

0.189

 

0.183

Iran

3.797

3.829

 

3.823

Iraq

4.351

4.455

 

4.429

Kuwait

2.707

2.701

 

2.704

Qatar

0.618

0.585

 

0.59

Saudi Arabia

10.058

9.987

 

9.959

UAE

2.874

2.865

 

2.872

Venezuela

1.972

1.392

 

1.436

total

29.804

29.078

 

29.028

 

  • According to data from secondary resources, the OPEC remains more than compliant with the agreement on an average production basis.
  • It is important to note that overall production from OPEC including the exempted members like Nigeria, and Libya rose for a second consecutive month and by 50,000 barrels per day In May compared to April.
  • Venezuela saw another sharp drop in production to 1.392 million barrels per day.
  • Libya and Nigeria produced 0.979 and 1.792 million barrels per day in May, respectively.
  • Total 14-member OPEC production was at 31.869 million barrels per day in May, up 35,000 barrels from April.
  • Market Data
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