More interesting will be how the FOMC characterizes the "recent global and financial developments," which arguably are not as acute as they may have seemed in September.
They could note conditions have stabilized or even improved slightly since September, but still bear watching. If the FOMC were to drop the language that it "is monitoring developments abroad" and instead sees risks to the outlook as "nearly balanced," that would again be a strong signal that the Fed is contemplating a December liftoff.
On the other hand, if the FOMC leaves that language unchanged, most market participants will assume December is too soon to hike. Hence, the Committee makes some modest changes to the discussion of global risks that suggest somewhat less concern than at the prior FOMC meeting.
This assessment is helped by the recent easing by the PBoC and by the dovish discussion of ECB policy actions by Draghi. Some market participants believe easy monetary policy abroad precludes the Fed from beginning the exit process and hiking rates.
However, Fed officials have indicated the opposite, they are looking for other central banks to stimulate their domestic economies and add to overall global aggregate demand. Thus, on the margin, the recent announcements by the PBoC and ECB make it more likely the Fed can initiate liftoff, not less.
True, if there were a substantial further appreciation of the US dollar that created a sizable drag on US growth, the Fed would have to take that into account.
"But as the US acts largely like a closed economy, and as the global growth impacts typically outweigh the currency impacts, otherwise monetary policy easing in one area would have historically led to significant slowdowns or recessions in others, easing by other major central banks should help push the US economy closer to full employment and the Fed closer to liftoff", says Bank of America.


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