The March PPI (Monday) is expected to rise +0.8% y/y (consensus: +0.4%). The domestic consumer goods component of the index, which has been sharply negative, will also be watched as its correlation with downstream prices (CPI goods prices) is strengthening.
The core CPI (excluding VAT impact) will turn negative around summer, prompting another BoJ easing via additional ETF purchases and IOER cut, in July.
In terms of monetary policy, BoJ Minutes for the March 16-17 meeting (Monday) and Governor Kuroda's speech (Wednesday) will be watched for any hints on their thinking behind their policy options.
"we expect this round of BoJ easing to have a much more limited effect than it did back in October; hence, we continue to expect USDJPY to trade range-bound around 120", Said Barclays in a report on Monday
