Polish wage data for the month of December is set to release tomorrow. Labor conditions in the nation have been tight for some time. According to an Erste Group Research report, wage growth is likely to have accelerated slightly to 6.1 percent year-on-year in December after a slight disappointing wage growth in the prior month. Employment is likely to have sustained 2.6 percent growth in the month. However, the underlying trends imply slowing growth dynamics of private consumption, said Erste Group Research.
Meanwhile, the industrial output and retail sales for the month of December is set to release later this week. Industrial output growth is likely to have accelerated towards 6 percent year-on-year in December from November’s 1.4 percent growth. Such development might put the average growth of industry in the last quarter marginally above average growth in the third quarter.
On the other hand, nominal retail sales are likely to have recovered to 7.8 percent year-on-year in the month, which might mean stabilization of quarterly growth a bit above 6 percent dynamics.
“All in all, if there are no major surprises and both industry and retail sales growth arrives in line with expectations, we see 4Q19 growth at 3.8 percent y/y and FY19 at 4.2 percent. In 2020, we see the economy slowing toward 3.4 percent”, added Erste Group Research.
