Silver Bulletin’s polls-only FLIPR forecast put Democrats within reach of seven Senate seat flips, a scenario that reflects strong polling for the party and a debate over how accurately surveys capture voters.
In Eli McKown-Dawson’s Nov. 2 analysis, FLIPR expected Democrats to flip North Carolina and put their chances at about 75% in Texas, Ohio, Maine and Kansas. It assigned Democrats a 63% chance in Alaska and 56% in Iowa, the closer contests in the group.
FLIPR’s Lite version uses polls alone. Silver Bulletin’s Deluxe forecast also weighs fundamentals and expert ratings. McKown-Dawson attributed some Democratic Senate candidates’ stronger-than-fundamentals showings to candidate quality and cited Kansas Democrat Adam Hamilton as an example.
Silver Bulletin’s generic-ballot measure put Democrats ahead by 8.9 percentage points. Their advantage at the comparable point in 2018 was 0.9 percentage point smaller. Applying FLIPR’s likely-voter adjustment put the Democratic lead at 9.2 points.
The analysis addressed disagreement over whether polls might overstate or understate Democratic support. Some analysts point to recent presidential elections in which polls overstated Democratic strength and say Republican voters can be harder to reach. Others see a credible case that surveys could undercount Democrats. McKown-Dawson cautioned against assuming in advance which direction polling errors will take, while arguing that polling broadly aligns with other available indicators.
EconoTimes previously covered a separate New York Times/Siena polling update that lifted Nate Silver’s estimate of Democratic Senate control into the 80s. Voters are due to decide the Senate races Nov. 3.
