The euro area is at present enjoying the tailwinds of low oil prices, an accommodative monetary policy and a weaker currency.
In addition, there is no longer in aggregate any drag from fiscal policy and a greater share of the structural reforms should begin to bear fruit.
Finally, the Juncker plan should provide some support. Medium-term, analysts nonetheless remain concerned that reform efforts are still not sufficient to lift trend potential against a backdrop of an ageing population.
Societe Generale notes...
There seems to be little in the domestic euro area economy on the 2015 horizon that would trigger a newsharp downturn.
Rather, the risks we see today stem from the political front.
