Historical U.S. market records show the S&P 500 returned about 14% on average in the year after midterm elections, offering context ahead of the Nov. 3 vote but no forecast for the next year.
Since 1938, the index has posted a positive return in 95% of the 12-month periods following midterm elections. The average return during the election year itself was about 5%; that year is the second of a presidential term.
The figures cover different windows: one measures the year after voters go to the polls, while the other tracks the midterm year. They describe earlier election cycles and do not establish how the S&P 500 will perform after this year's vote.
J.P. Morgan Asset Management has a separate series showing positive S&P 500 returns in every 12-month period after midterms since 1950, with an average gain of about 15%. That record, covered in an earlier EconoTimes article on the firm's post-midterm data, begins later and reports a different average.
The next U.S. midterm election is scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 3.
