J.P. Morgan Asset Management's records show the S&P 500 finishing higher over the year after every U.S. midterm since 1950, a pattern in view ahead of the Nov. 3, 2026, election.
The firm puts the average gain across those post-election years at about 15%. The figure covers periods after earlier elections, not market performance in the run-up to a vote, and it does not include a return after the 2026 election.
The election approaches amid higher interest rates and accelerating inflation. On Sept. 16, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 12-0 to lift its federal funds target range by 0.25 percentage point, setting it at 3.75%-4.00%.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 3.7% over the year through September. The comparable increase through August was 3.4%, while the energy index was up 20.4% over the year through September.
The Fed's September projections put the median federal funds rate at 4.1% at the end of 2026. That figure reflects participants' individual views on an appropriate rate; the Fed says those views can shift as economic conditions change. It is a separate measure from the target range set in September.
The historical market record describes completed post-election periods, while the rate decision and inflation figures show the economic backdrop ahead of this year's vote. The record does not establish how the S&P 500 will perform after the 2026 election.
The FOMC's next meeting is scheduled for Oct. 27-28, before Election Day. The BLS is scheduled to release October CPI on Nov. 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
