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Pound has dropped today against dollar, after failing to push above 1.58. Currently trading at 1.572 against dollar, down from its recent high around 1.595.
- Even if pound fails to push higher against dollar, market participants are preparing for higher rates from Bank of England (BOE). Throughout the period of lower inflation BOE has maintained its stance of not pushing rates lower or provide further stimulus and as of now, UK economy is growing at fastest pace among developed market peers.
- Implied rates for 1 year now stands just above 1% compared to 0.65% in March.
- According to Bloomberg, market based implied policy rate over next 1 year has hit highest level since November last year.
There are 9 policymakers, on Bank of England's (BOE) policy making board, among which two of the members, Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty voted for rate hike last year before joining back the dove team.
These two might be ready to switch sides now. If that happens, three more hawks are required to push for a hike.
This makes pound a strong bullish contender over the coming months.
