The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at its 3 March meeting but it introduced a clear easing bias in its communication by concluding that "further easing of policy may be appropriate over the period ahead, in order to fo…
The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at its 3 March meeting but it introduced a clear easing bias in its communication by concluding that "further easing of policy may be appropriate over the period ahead, in order to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation consistent with the target".
RBA is more likely than not to resume cutting rates over the next couple of meetings.
Unicredit notes in a report on Friday:
Although we remain fundamentally bearish on commodity currencies, we have to acknowledge that the depreciation of the Australian dollar since July 2014 (11% in trade-weighted terms and 17% against the US dollar) suggests that a lot is already in the price.
We think some further depreciation should be expected - given ongoing pressures on prices for Australia's main export commodities and further downside risks to Chinese growth - but we believe that the bulk of the Aussie's decline is now behind us.
Hence, we expect AUD-USD to converge toward 0.75 by year-end and EUR-AUD to appreciate somewhat toward 1.44 by year-end and closer to 1.50 next year.
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