The New Zealand dollar has significantly out-performed the Canadian and Australian dollars in the 3 ½ years since the peak of global commodity prices.
New Zealand's exports of dairy produce are less affected by the downturn in Chinese demand Australia's exports (e.g., iron ore) and less affected by the fall in oil prices than Canada's exports.
But the biggest driver of out-performance was monetary policy divergence as the domestic New Zealand economy adjusted to the rebuilding required after the Christchurch earthquake (February 2011).
"Now however, New Zealand's economy has slowed, inflation has fallen, and the RBNZ has more scope to ease than RBA or the RBC. The NZD/CAD rate can fall back towards 0.80 as oil prices stabilise and pressure on the PBoC to ease monetary policy and eventually allow CNY deprecation, build", says Societe Generale.


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