A report from the World Bank Group’s Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) and GOGLA, the global off-grid solar association, estimates about $11.4 billion is needed from 2027 through 2030 to extend off-grid solar access to 398 million people without electricity.
The estimate includes about $1.3 billion a year in grants and affordability subsidies, alongside $1.6 billion a year in equity, debt and receivables financing. The proposed funding mix therefore relies on public support as well as private capital.
The report identifies off-grid solar as the least-cost way to serve the people in its 398 million estimate. That comparison applies to people who lack electricity; it does not establish that off-grid systems are the cheapest choice for every consumer.
Across the firms classified as affiliates under the report’s definition, off-grid solar products served 149 million people in 2025, compared with 118 million in 2023. The 26% increase describes that affiliate group, not every business in the solar market.
Affordability remains a constraint. Pay-as-you-go financing could make an entry-level solar home system affordable for about one-third of households without electricity. A further third could manage the cost only with difficulty, the report says.
The World Bank Group said targeted subsidies, VAT exemptions and import-duty waivers could help close affordability gaps. Those tools would sit alongside private financing in the effort to extend access to households with limited ability to pay.
The report also estimates benefits in income and employment. It puts the additional customer income and savings associated with off-grid solar products at $28 billion over 15 years. About 7.4 million people use the systems for income-generating activities, and the surveyed market supports roughly 219,000 jobs.
In a customer survey, 95% of respondents said their solar home systems were still working at least four years after purchase.
