Russia suffered significant blows to its reputation in mid-2024. An attack on its territory by Ukraine came as a surprise. In west Africa, the Wagner mercenary group, supported by Russia, suffered one of its heaviest fatalities in Mali.

An alliance of Tuareg rebel groups known as the Permanent Strategic Framework for the Defense of the People of Azawad joined forces in late July with Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, a coalition of four terrorist groups operating in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.

The rebel-terrorist alliance attacked a Malian army contingent which was supported by Wagner fighters. After three days of heavy fighting, dozens of Malian soldiers and Wagner fighters were either killed or captured.

The attack was significant in many ways. For one thing, it shows the Malian junta is having difficulty in securing the country (its purported reason for taking over, expelling France and turning to Russia).

For another, it highlights the impact of geopolitics in the region. The attack has raised concern that a new proxy war between Russia and Ukraine might be starting in Africa.

This is the second country in Africa where Ukraine is getting involved in local conflicts to attack Russian elements. Ukraine special forces are “active” in Sudan’s civil war, where Russia has interests.

As a scholar of African security and politics, I research conflicts, governance, terrorism and development on the continent. At the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, I analysed African countries’ position on the war and explained why several chose to be “neutral” and not take sides on the conflict.

I argued that many African countries did not want to get involved in what was seen as a proxy war between the US and Russia. After Russia invaded Ukraine, many countries in Europe as well as the US flooded Ukraine with weapons to defend its territory. The EU for the first time supplied lethal aid to Ukraine.

Although the US and European countries denied it was a proxy war, the director of the CIA under Barack Obama admitted, “It’s a proxy war with Russia whether we say so or not.” This view was shared by several countries in Africa which were determined to remain neutral in order not to be drawn into the conflict.

With the involvement of Ukraine in the war in Sudan and now in Mali, it looks like African countries are in fact getting drawn in, and on their own territory.

A new proxy war will have severe implications for the region and continent more broadly. The security dynamics in Africa are very complicated, with issues such as ethnicity, religion, inequality, topography and poverty adding to the fragility.

Libya is an example of how external interference could result in a conflict lasting decades and destabilising the entire region. African leaders must avoid such foreign intervention as that of Libya, which has been labelled a failure.

Foreign dimension of the Mali conflict

Further pointers to a proxy war between the US and Ukraine on the one hand and Russia on the other on African territory were laid bare when a representative of Ukraine’s security service, Andriy Yusov, stated on television that Ukraine “enabled” the attack on the Malian army and Wagner.

The ambassador of Ukraine to Senegal, Guinea-Bissau, Côte d'Ivoire and Liberia, Yurii Pyvovarov, has also been accused by the government of Senegal of providing “unequivocal and unqualified support for the terrorist attack” in Mali.

In response, Mali and Niger have severed diplomatic relationships with Ukraine. Senegal also summoned the Ukrainian ambassador. The west African economic grouping Ecowas declared its “firm disapproval and firm condemnation of any outside interference in the region.”

This is a major setback for Ukraine in the region.

Although Ukraine has denied supporting terrorist groups in the region, its involvement in the death of Malian soldiers has attracted condemnation.

Russia has already seized the attack to label Ukraine an enemy of Africa. Russia accused Ukraine of opening a “second front” in Africa and supporting terrorist groups.

Ukraine’s position

In June 2024, the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, organised a summit to gather support for his call on Russia to end its invasion; 92 countries participated, including 57 heads of state or government.

About 80 countries signed a document condemning Russia for the war and declaring Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Only 12 of these countries were from Africa. Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso did not attend. Fewer than 20 African countries sent representatives.

This is another proof that African countries do not want to get involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Many have also abstained from previous UN General Assembly votes. This is despite Ukraine trying to get support from the continent.

Narratives about the role of Ukraine in Mali would only weaken its influence in Africa. This is because several countries on the continent are fragile and terrorism is a serious problem.

A Russian propaganda win?

Since the recent coups in the west African region within the last four years, Russia has positioned itself as an alternative to western influence there. It is benefiting from the chaos in the region by quickly filling the gap left by France and its allies in the Sahel.

Shortly after the ambush on Malian and Wagner forces, the foreign minister of Russia, Sergey Lavrov, reiterated Russia’s commitment to helping Mali boost its combat capability, train military personnel and address pressing socioeconomic problems.

For over a decade, Russia has presented itself as an alternative partner in fighting terrorism in the region. For instance, when the US refused to sell weapons to Nigeria because of a damning report by Amnesty International accusing the Nigerian army of human rights abuse, Nigeria turned to Russia for weapons.

With Russia losing allies in the west since its invasion of Ukraine, Africa has been an important region of support. Ukraine is also very keen to get the support of African countries, as seen in its intention to open 10 new embassies on the continent. In a war where both sides are looking for external support, Ukraine’s loss might become Russia’s gain.

A way forward

African leaders must unite to condemn any form of external interference that could further destabilise the region. They should demand accountability from Russia on the activities of the Wagner group on the continent while making it clear to Ukraine that foreign interference will not be tolerated on the continent.

The Tuareg situation must also be addressed. Former president Mahamadou Issoufou of Niger was able to complete two terms in office partly because he accommodated the demands of the Tuaregs in his country and addressed their concerns.

The government in Mali should understand that there is no military solution to the Tuareg dilemma. They should take a cue from Issoufou’s policies which placated the Tuaregs in Niger during his presidential terms.