Russian labor market conditions likely to have remained solid in June

Russia’s labor market conditions are expected to have remained quite intact in June. The jobless rate is likely to have hovered around 5.5 percent non-seasonally adjusted, or 5.7 percent seasonally adjusted in June, noted Societe Generale in a research note.

Even if many industries, for instance automotive, keep on postponing consumer goods production, layoffs have not been huge as the government offers certain countercyclical stimulus to producers.

This also assists in maintaining the headline jobless rate low enough in the run-up to the State Duma elections; however, the ‘true’ jobless rate can just be revealed by taking a peek at working hours, while the June report is likely to color the picture for the second quarter of 2016, according to Societe Generale.

Meanwhile, even if real wages are likely to have stagnated on sequential seasonally adjusted basis, the year-on-year figure is expected to have reached -0.5 percent in June from -1 percent in May. In spite of unpredictable moves and changes to the headline print in the first quarter, one-off shocks have played out, keeping room for a gradual revision of nominal wages in the  tradable sector, said Societe Generale.