Slower China demand may have weighed on Thai exports

Thailand will release custom-based trade data for April during 25-27 May. Analysts believe that slow China demand and a decline in global agricultural prices continued to weigh on exports. Standard Chartered expects exports to have contracted 0.1% y/y in April, marking the fourth consecutive month of contraction. Prior to this, the Thai central bank voiced concerns that exports may contract in 2015 for a third consecutive year. 

Faltering exports likely prompted the central bank to cut its policy rate in March and April to ensure a continued economic recovery amid faltering exports. Current account surplus likely softened in April Thailand will release current account data for April on 29 May. The current account surplus likely to have declined to USD 200mn in April, down from a USD 2.223bn surplus in the previous month, added Standard Chartered.


he decline in the April current account surplus was likely due to seasonal repatriation of profits and dividends by foreign companies, and higher outbound tourism abroad during the Songkran holiday. Analysts expect the seasonal effect of dividends repatriation to persist for another month and weigh on the current account in May as well.