Slower inflation likely in Japan, moderate retail sales increase in February

Standard Chartered notes its forecasts as follows:

• We expect slower inflation, moderate retail sales increase in February Japan will release February inflation, retail sales and jobs data on 27 March. 
  
  
• We expect core inflation (excluding fresh food) to have slowed to 2.1% y/y from 2.2% in January. Excluding the sales-tax effect, core inflation likely fell to 0.1% y/y, the lowest since June 2013. 
  
  
• The jobless rate likely remained unchanged, after having risen to 3.6% in January from 3.4% in December 2014. 
  
  
• The participation rate continued to decline to 59.0 in January, the lowest since March 2014, indicating that labourmarketsentiment remains conservative. 
  
  
• Retail sales growth likely rebounded to 0.8% m/m after a 1.9% m/m decline in January. 
  
  
• The increase in tourist arrivals likely boosted local retail sales, while household spending probably remained sluggish.