A projected Social Security funding gap would arrive before the six-year terms of senators elected to full terms in 2026 expire, placing the issue inside the tenure of the new Senate.
The Social Security trustees project that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) fund, which pays retirement and survivor benefits, will run out of reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032. Under the trustees’ intermediate assumptions, continuing income would cover 78% of scheduled benefits, leaving a 22% gap under current law.
Reserves running out would not eliminate all income: payroll taxes and other program revenue would continue. But for people receiving benefits, the projection means those sources would not cover the full scheduled amount.
Senate terms last six years, according to the U.S. Senate. The Associated Press reported that Democrats won control of both chambers in the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
The estimate applies to OASI alone. The separate Disability Insurance fund is projected to remain solvent through 2100. If the legally separate funds were combined, trustees project reserves would run out in the third quarter of 2034, when income would cover 83% of scheduled benefits.
Trustees report that Social Security costs have exceeded income excluding interest since 2010, while total costs first surpassed total income in 2021. The 2026 report puts the combined Old-Age, Survivors and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program’s 75-year actuarial deficit at 4.42% of taxable payroll, up from 3.82% in the 2025 report. Lower assumptions for fertility and net immigration contributed to the weaker long-term outlook, alongside other factors.
A bipartisan group of senators introduced the PROMISE Act on July 14. It would direct the Social Security Advisory Board to develop recommendations and legislative language aimed at keeping both funds solvent for at least 50 years. Sen. Ron Wyden said he intended to object to a unanimous-consent request to advance the bill, arguing its five-month process would limit public input. Lead sponsor Sen. Dick Durbin said the proposal would give lawmakers a way to begin bipartisan work.
The 1983 Social Security law followed recommendations from a bipartisan panel formed during President Ronald Reagan’s administration with congressional leaders; lawmakers debated and revised the package before enactment. Trustees say acting earlier would give Congress more time to consider options and phase in changes, but they have not endorsed a particular mix of revenue increases and benefit changes. GovInfo lists the PROMISE Act’s latest action as referral to the Senate Finance Committee after two readings.
