Solid NFP and unemployment to boost up USD while EUR seems tepid despite ECB’s efforts

The upbeat nonfarm job creation astonished the streets by reporting 217K jump from the previous 196K has surpassed the forecasts at 191K, remained quite solid in November series.

In addition the US ISM non-manufacturing survey is the final good clue to today's payrolls release.

Yet, hiring breadth across the 263 industries canvassed by government statisticians climbed to an eight-month high of 61.8% in October.

Although not included explicitly in our formal modeling process, the number of available positions posted online soared by 232,000 to an all-time high of 5.685 million in November.

On the technical side, owing to this year's calendar configuration, we expect the BLS' seasonal adjustment factors to pare roughly 75,000 off the unadjusted payroll gain.

ECB stimulus on but German-led opposition could lead to a watered-down QE plan probably disappointing stuff. 

We also look forward to the QE scheme to be enhanced through a combination of a duration extension of at least six months and an increase in the monthly pace of purchases to €75bn.

USD had a brief flurry higher on Yellen's speech yesterday evening but quickly settled back to the middle of recent ranges and markets are generally struggling to find direction ahead of today's ECB meeting.

Hence, although there could some intermediate strength for euro factoring today's ECB's outcome, we still project 1.0525 for end - 2015, a cyclical low of 1.05 in Q1 2016 can also not be disregarded, and a slow uptick from there to 1.11 by June 2016 and 1.13 by Q3 2016.