Solvay lowered its 2026 earnings and cash flow forecasts Oct. 19 after the Middle East conflict and a continued plant shutdown in Saudi Arabia weighed on preliminary third-quarter results.
The chemical company reported €173 million in underlying EBITDA for the quarter, alongside €1.03 billion in underlying net sales. Solvay recorded €54 million in free cash flow for its shareholders from continuing operations. Solvay cautioned that it has not finished closing its third-quarter books.
Solvay now projects €720 million to €740 million in underlying EBITDA for the year and €120 million to €150 million in free cash flow for shareholders of its continuing operations. The cash flow estimate accounts for about €90 million in transformation expenses. The projections leave out any potential Sadara revenue or recoveries during the remainder of 2026.
Both forecasts are below the outlook Solvay issued with its second-quarter results: underlying EBITDA of €770 million to €850 million and free cash flow of at least €200 million after transformation expenses. The earlier projection assumed the Peroxides plant in Saudi Arabia would resume operations during the third quarter.
Solvay estimated that the conflict reduced third-quarter underlying EBITDA by about €25 million. The continued shutdown of the Peroxide plant at Sadara’s Jubail complex accounted for close to €15 million of that amount. The company had estimated a conflict-related impact of about €20 million on second-quarter underlying EBITDA.
Solvay’s pre-quarter analyst consensus listed €186 million for third-quarter Group EBITDA and €775 million for the full year. Those estimates were compiled before the preliminary results and revised guidance.
Solvay conducts its Jubail operations through a venture with Sadara. Sadara is itself a joint venture majority-owned by Saudi Aramco. Solvay said its venture agreement provides ways to seek compensation for lost profit, but it has not reported a payment or assigned a value to any recovery.
Solvay is scheduled to publish its full third-quarter results Nov. 4.
