South Africa is cumulating weaknesses

In South Africa, trade balance data should confirm its relative fragility to the Chinese slowdown with a widening of the trade deficit. 

"In the short term, the ZAR has the greatest potential to weaken further, cumulating significant weaknesses", says Credit Agricole.

Within the region it is the country most exposed to the Chinese concerns. The latest Q2 GDP figure, 1.3% QoQ annualized, confirmed the slowdown and has highlighted the issues of the South African business model. 

Finally, the SARB has started a shallow tightening cycle that is counter cyclical and to this extent will be a negative FX factor in our opinion.