South Korean exports are likely to have weakened in August

Temporary factors such as the summer vacation and the special holiday on 14 August to celebrate the 70th Liberation Day cannot fully explain the weakness in South Korean exports, which would be negative for the short-term growth outlook. 

"South Korean exports are likely to have weakened in August after a stable performance in July. Based on interim trade data until 20 August, exports are estimated to decline from $46.6bn to $42.0bn", says Societe Generale. 

The outlook for exports should depend on those to advanced economies (US and Europe), which has been slower so far this year. 

"Imports are likely to fall from $38.8bn in July to $36.0bn in August, mainly due to the steep decline in oil prices. The trade surplus will remain substantial at $6.0bn", added Societe Generale.