South Korean industrial output is likely to have recovered modestly last month, following a considerable drop in March. Even if exports were subdued in April, the weakness is expected to have been already reflected in industrial production’s decline in March, said Societe Generale in a research report.
The figures for export and production are likely to have been impacted by lesser working days in April 2016 because of parliamentary Election Day. Output of electronics is expected to have recovered following a decline of 10% in March. Growth in electronics production is likely to have been driven by semiconductors, according to Societe Generale.
In the meantime, industry data implies that auto output is likely to have dropped a bit post the 4.8% growth in March. Other sectors, including steel and chemicals are unlikely to have registered significant changes. The forecasts are based on the assumption that industrial production in April is similar to the average of the first quarter, and hence the pattern of recent years’ effective zero growth is expected to carry on in the second quarter, noted Societe Generale.
