A 254 Labs/YouGov Blue survey puts Democratic state Rep. James Talarico eight points ahead of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Senate race, while Democrats lead in four other statewide contests it tested.
The poll recorded 51% for Talarico and 43% for Paxton, with 5% undecided. Among independents, Talarico led 60% to 31%; voters who said they were more enthusiastic about voting this November than in past elections favored him 57% to 41%. The release says its percentages are rounded.
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa led Gov. Greg Abbott 49% to 46%. Vikki Goodwin was at 48% against Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick at 45%; Nathan Johnson led Mayes Middleton 47% to 45%, and Jon Rosenthal led Bo French 47% to 43%.
YouGov Blue collected responses for 254 Labs from 1,000 registered Texas voters online and through text-to-web between Oct. 21 and 26. The release says responses were weighted to likely-voter targets, including an early-voting turnout benchmark. It reports an approximate margin of error of 4.6 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
Two earlier surveys found smaller leads for Talarico. Emerson College Polling and Nexstar reported 48% for Talarico and 46% for Paxton in a survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted Oct. 17-19. Libertarian Ted Brown received 1%, while 5% were undecided; Emerson reported a 3.1-point credibility interval. That poll put Abbott ahead of Hinojosa 49% to 45%.
In the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project survey, 861 likely voters were polled from Sept. 25 to Oct. 5. The results gave Talarico 50% and Paxton 47%, with a 3.34-point margin of error. Hinojosa received 49% and Abbott 48%. The surveys had different field dates and samples; those differences do not establish an election outcome.
The Texas Politics Project says the Republican advantage across statewide offices and both legislative chambers has lasted more than 20 years. Its polling analysis also points to a partisan enthusiasm gap favoring Democrats. University of Houston political science professor Brandon Rottinghaus told The Associated Press that economic discontent was prompting voters to reconsider partisan loyalties, citing “a sour economy.”
Texas voters are scheduled to decide the Senate race and statewide contests in the Nov. 3 general election.
