Thailand GDP growth likely to remain lackluster with no help from export

Two things to note from the October trade data for Thailand this week. Firstly, another double-digit fall in imports may signal that domestic demand remains lackluster. Private consumption growth is still trending below 2% (YoY) while private investment growth came in at -6.6% in 3Q15, its sharpest plunge in about 2 years. DBS Bank notes that that bulk of the positive impact from the government's stimulus measures will be evident in early-2016. 

"The trade data is also likely to show that there is still no help from export growth to overall GDP growth. Indeed, export growth is currently trending below its average for the past year. This will continue to be a drag on the manufacturing sector, which makes up about 30% of overall GDP. Without stronger export growth, capacity utilization rate is likely to remain below 60%, as what is evident currently," further noted DBS Bank notes.