There’s no reason not to expect the 200k growth in US nonfarm payrolls that consensus does tomorrow

There's no reason not to expect the 200k growth in nonfarm payrolls (private and total) that consensus does tomorrow. We'd look for 210k but only because that's been the average since Jan 2011 and, considering that a typical (standard) deviation from that 210k average is 75k, we're splitting hairs and fine ones at that. 

The broader point is that GDP growth has run at a rock-steady 2%-2.1% pace for the past five years and nonfarm payrolls - not surprisingly - have run at an rock-steady trend pace of 210k / mth too. All that nonsense one used to hear from Fed officials (and others) about 'payrolls improving or 'payrolls weakening' was just that: nonsense, noise - random volatility that made each month's reports a lot of fun to watch but didn't change the underlying trend one iota. 210 is as 210 was.

It's not a big number but 210k job growth each month does mop up slack in labor markets, if ever so slowly. The official unemployment rate has fallen to 5% and while no one believes the actual unemployment rate is anywhere near that low (several million workers have not-so-inexplicably dropped out of the labor force), things are moving in the right direction. Eventually wages will start to go up and with them, inflation more broadly. 

"We think it will take another year (or more) before this happens but wage increases over the past couple of months have looked firmer than they have in several years. Whether this is random volatility (as we suspect) or the outcome of truly firmer labor markets remains to be seen", notes DBS Group Research.

But 'average hourly earnings', will be watched more closely than usual tomorrow and indeed the focus will probably intensify going forward. Continued firming would reassure the Fed that lift-off was the right course of action. Or not.