The Banco Central do Brazil's (BCB's) monetary policy committee (COPOM) meets on 4 March. Standard Chartered Research notes: We now expect it to maintain its 50bps hiking pace, raising the SELIC rate to 12.75% (prior: 12…
The Banco Central do Brazil's (BCB's) monetary policy committee (COPOM) meets on 4 March. Standard Chartered Research notes:
We now expect it to maintain its 50bps hiking pace, raising the SELIC rate to 12.75% (prior: 12.50%). The SELIC rate was raised 50bps at both December and January meetings, following an initial hike of 25bps in October.
We see the BCB operating more aggressively under the new economic team. Markets will watch the post-meeting statement for hints on next policy steps, but most of the details will only come in the minutes due to be released on 12 March.
The market expects the BCB to start preparing to end the tightening cycle in the 4 March meeting, delivering a final 25bps hike.
In late March the BCB is expected to release its quarterly inflation report; we think disappointing inflation data will lead to a relatively hawkish tone.
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