Tightening mode for now in Brazil

The Banco Central do Brazil's (BCB's) monetary policy committee (COPOM) meets on 4 March. Standard Chartered Research notes:

• We now expect it to maintain its 50bps hiking pace, raising the SELIC rate to 12.75% (prior: 12.50%). The SELIC rate was raised 50bps at both December and January meetings, following an initial hike of 25bps in October. 
• We see the BCB operating more aggressively under the new economic team. Markets will watch the post-meeting statement for hints on next policy steps, but most of the details will only come in the minutes due to be released on 12 March. 
• The market expects the BCB to start preparing to end the tightening cycle in the 4 March meeting, delivering a final 25bps hike. 
• In late March the BCB is expected to release its quarterly inflation report; we think disappointing inflation data will lead to a relatively hawkish tone.