Trade growth between SSA and the Middle has plateaued

Trade between SSA and the Middle East increased rapidly from USD 6.0bn in 2002 to USD 28.4bn in 2008. Although it recovered quickly from 2009 crisis levels it has not developed as rapidly since. Trade between the Middle East and SSA hovered between USD 30bn and USD 35bn from 2011 to 2013. Standard Chartered expects it to have remained at similar levels in 2014. This contrasts with SSA's relations with Asian economies such as China and India, where trade has continued to develop rapidly in recent years: SSA has largely imported capital goods and lower-value manufactured goods from Asian counterparts, and exported raw commodities. 

SSA-Middle East trade has increased at a CAGR of 12% since 2000, compared with SSA-China trade at 27% and SSA-India trade at 18%. The trade balance shows a large surplus for the Middle East. Much of the growth in trade between the regions has been propelled by increasing demand for Middle Eastern commodities and manufactured goods in SSA. Although the Middle East has a large trade surplus with SSA, the composition of trade is relatively even - withcommodities featuring heavily both in SSA's imports from and exports to the Middle East. Longer-term, analysts anticipate that the balance may start to shift more in SSA's favour as agricultural exports pick up.

Trade is highly concentrated both in terms of key countries and goods imported and exported. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Turkey  dominate on the Middle East side, and South Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia and Nigeria on the SSA side. Trade between just these countries accounted for over 65% of total SSA-Middle East trade in 2013. South Africa alone accounts for almost 40% of SSA's imports from the Middle East, the majority of which is oil. In terms of SSA's imports from the Middle East, oil and manufactured goods dominate.