Trump Win Propels Consumer Confidence To 10-Year High

LOS ANGELES, Dec. 06, 2016 -- The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, a leading national poll on consumer confidence, gained 3.4 points, or 6.6%, in December, posting a reading of 54.8 vs. 51.4 in November. The index is 6.2 points above its 12-month average of 48.6, which is 10.4 points above its reading of 44.4 in December 2007 when the economy entered the last recession, and 5.7 points above its all-time average of 49.1.

The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has a strong track record of foreshadowing the confidence indicators put out later each month by the University of Michigan and The Conference Board. The IBD/TIPP poll, which was conducted using the same methodology as the Economic Optimism Index, was one of only two national polls to accurately predict the outcome of the 2016 Presidential Election and has been named the most accurate major poll over the past four election cycles. IBD/TIPP’s team conducted its latest national telephone consumer confidence poll, by surveying 902 adults located across the country from November 28 to December 4 using live interviewers and both cell phone and landlines. The margin of error is +/-3.3 percentage points.

Index readings above 50 indicate optimism while below 50 reflects pessimism, indicating that Americans currently have a favorable view of the economy going into the holiday season and as year-end nears. Results of the recent presidential election appear to have contributed to the current positive swing in consumer sentiment.

“Consumers are relieved that the presidential election is finally over. The positive Trump effect on our index is approximately eight points. The last time the index was higher than the current month’s reading was ten years ago, in November 2006,” noted Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica, IBD's polling partner.

The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index includes three key components. This month, all three of the index components improved.

• The Six-Month Economic Outlook, a measure of how consumers feel about the economy’s prospects in the next six months, climbed 4.1 points, or 7.9%, to 56.3.  The sub-index was 32.1 when the economy entered the last recession in December 2007.
  
  
• The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months gained 0.9 point, or 1.5%, to 59.8.
  
  
• Confidence in Federal Economic Policies, a proprietary IBD/TIPP measure of views on how government economic policies are working, improved 5.2 points, or 12.1%, to 48.3.

“With the advent of a new administration and governing philosophy, a burst of optimism was to be expected,” said Terry Jones, Commentary Editor of Investor’s Business Daily. “Major economy-boosting initiatives, including tax, health care and regulatory reforms, will likely be part of the new administration’s agenda.”

The Breakdown

This month, 20 of the 21 demographic groups that IBD/TIPP tracks were above 50 on the Economic Optimism Index. Eighteen groups improved on the index. 

On the Economic Outlook component, 17 of the 21 groups that IBD/TIPP tracks scored in optimistic territory.  Sixteen groups improved on the component. 

On the Personal Financial component, 20 groups IBD/TIPP tracks scored in optimistic territory. Fourteen groups increased, while seven declined.

On the Federal Policies component, eight of the 21 demographic groups tracked were above 50. Nineteen groups advanced on the component and two declined.

A more detailed analysis of this month’s IBD/TIPP Economic Index can be found at: http://www.investors.com/ibdtipp

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