U.S. inflation accelerated in September as artificial-intelligence investment increasingly relied on debt, putting price pressures and financing risks in focus for investors and policymakers ahead of two November inflation releases.
Bloomberg News reported Oct. 31 that a roundup of views from nine financial professionals examined risks spanning inflation, AI financing and wealth concentration.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 3.6% over the 12 months through September, while its measure excluding food and energy rose 3.1%. The two indexes increased 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively, from August. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the separate Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.7% over the year and 0.6% from August on a seasonally adjusted basis. Gasoline prices climbed 9.1%, accounting for more than half of the monthly CPI increase. CPI and PCE use different methods and baskets.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) put its median PCE inflation projection at 2.3% in 2027, measured from the fourth quarter of 2026 to the fourth quarter of 2027. Participants’ forecasts ranged from 2.0% to 2.6% and depend on their assessments of appropriate monetary policy. In a separate report, the BLS said final-demand prices rose 1.3% in September from August on a seasonally adjusted basis. Processed materials excluding food and energy rose 8.5% over the year, while unprocessed nonfood materials excluding energy rose 24.3%.
A Federal Reserve research note said intellectual-property and equipment investment made up about 0.8 percentage points more of U.S. gross domestic product in the first quarter of 2026 than in 2024, leaving the share slightly below its 2000 peak. The note said AI drove much of the recent investment boom and identified competition for a winner-takes-all AI market as one possible incentive for heavy spending. It points to the 1990s information-technology boom, which left some capacity, including dark fiber, with little productive use; it does not predict the same outcome for AI.
A January bulletin from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) said AI investment is increasingly financed through debt, with private credit playing a growing role. The BIS’ 2026 Annual Economic Report identified possible credit risks if firms slow or halt capital spending.
Federal Reserve data show the top 1% held 32.5% of U.S. household net worth in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 2.3% for the bottom half. The Fed said net-worth gains that quarter came primarily from corporate-equity gains and that equity ownership is concentrated among higher-income households. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported credit-card balances rose $21 billion to $1.26 trillion. Total household debt fell $13 billion to $18.8 trillion; a temporary mortgage-reporting gap related to a servicing transfer affected the mortgage balance figure.
The next scheduled inflation readings are the October CPI release on Nov. 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET and the October PCE price index on Nov. 25 at 8:30 a.m. EST.
