The UAE’s National Center of Meteorology (NCM) expects temperatures and rainfall to be near or above seasonal averages from November 2026 through March 2027, according to an outlook reported by Gulf News and Emirates 24|7 as El Niño strengthens.
The two outlets said the NCM outlook assigns a 96% probability to El Niño conditions during those months and allows for more active weather near the period’s end if atmospheric conditions are suitable. That figure concerns the Pacific climate pattern; it does not assign odds to rain, flooding or a specific storm in the Emirates.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA CPC) said in an Oct. 8 discussion that the Niño-3.4 region recorded a +2.1°C sea-surface temperature anomaly in September. An anomaly shows how far a reading differs from its average; it is not the region’s absolute ocean temperature. NOAA said strong or very strong El Niño conditions were likely through January-March 2027, with the probability above 83%.
NOAA also assigned an 83% chance to exceeding a record-strength threshold in October–December, a different period and measure.
S. Sandeep and R. S. Ajayamohan analyzed past El Niño years and found that moisture carried toward the Gulf from the Red Sea and Arabian Sea intensified. Their peer-reviewed study also described changes higher in the atmosphere that can help midlatitude weather systems reach the Arabian Gulf. The research identifies a historical pattern, not a forecast for a particular UAE storm.
NOAA said the chance of El Niño-related effects increases as the event strengthens, but the pattern does not determine which effects will occur in each region. Gulf News cited the April 2024 floods while discussing possible road and travel disruption if heavy rain occurs. The reported NCM outlook gives no rainfall total, affected location or storm forecast.
NOAA CPC scheduled its next ENSO Diagnostic Discussion for Nov. 12, 2026.
