Standard Chartered notes its views on UK CPI as follows.... We expect the CPI inflation rate, due on 24 March, to have eased further, to 0.2% y/y in February from 0.3% prior, and core CPI to have eased to 1.3% from 1.4%.…
Standard Chartered notes its views on UK CPI as follows....
We expect the CPI inflation rate, due on 24 March, to have eased further, to 0.2% y/y in February from 0.3% prior, and core CPI to have eased to 1.3% from 1.4%.
The wide divergence in headline and core CPI shows the impact of lower energy prices on headline inflation. Additional downward pressure comes from the exchange rate.
The Bank of England's effective British pound (GBP) exchange rate shows that GBP appreciated 5% in the past year on a trade-weighted basis.
We expect headline CPI to drift slightly lower in the coming months before gradually moving higher towardsthe end of the year, and averaging -0.7% in 2015.
Productivity growth and wage growth are the key variables to monitor in terms of domestic inflationary pressures. Wage growth has been on pause in the past two months.
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