GBPJPY surged sharply after upbeat UK PMI data. Intraday trend is bearish as long as the resistance at 209 holds. At the time of writing, it reached a low of 206.77 and is now trading at about 207.61.
The UK's December 2025 flash PMIs exceeded expectations, signaling accelerating private sector growth: Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 (vs. expected 50.4, prior 50.2), marking two consecutive months of expansion and the strongest since mid-2024; Services PMI climbed to 52.1 (vs. 51.5–51.6 expected, prior 51.3); and the Composite PMI hit 52.1 (vs. 51.6 expected, prior 51.2). Survey respondents reported faster output growth, the strongest new business inflows in over a year, improved business confidence post-Budget uncertainty, and broad-based demand gains, pointing to economic stabilization, monthly GDP growth around 0.2% in December, and 0.1% for Q4 overall. However, employment contracted for a 15th straight month amid persistent staff cost pressures, while selling prices rose again, creating mixed signals that likely prompt the Bank of England to adopt a cautious, data-dependent approach to further rate cuts into 2026, balancing growth support against inflation risks.
Oscillators and moving averages to forecast the trend of GBPJPY
CMP- 207.86
EMA (4-hour chart)
55-EMA- 207.55
200-EMA- 205.52
365-EMA- 203.91. The pair trades below the short (55- EMA) and above the long-term moving average(365 EMA and below 200 EMA).
Major Support- 207. Any breach below will drag the pair down 206.75/206.47/205.40/205.
Major resistance - 208. Any break above confirms minor bullishness; a jump to 209/210/210.58/212 is possible.
Indicator (4-hour chart)
CCI (50)- bearish
Average directional movement Index- Neutral. All indicators confirm a neutral trend.
It is good to sell on rallies around 208 with SL around 209 for a TP of 206.
