UK Election: Latest election odds

This week’s most important event is scheduled for Thursday, June 8th when the United Kingdom will hold its snap general election called by Prime Minister May in April. While Theresa May has been hoping for a greater majority in the House of Commons as the UK heads for tough negotiations with the European Union over Brexit. The recent polls have shown that Prime Minister May’s Conservative Party has been losing its victory margin over the opposition Labor Party. Let’s look at the market pricing of odds of the UK election,

• As of now, the market is pricing 87-90 percent odds that Theresa May’s Conservative Party would win most of the seats in the upcoming election. The same odds is just at 10-13 percent for the opposition Labor Party.
• The market is also pricing an 80 percent probability that Theresa May will be the next Prime Minister compared to just 21 percent for Jeremy Corbyn.
• Despite a recent YouGov model predicting a hung parliament, the market is pricing no hung parliament with 83 percent probability.
• The market is also pricing a conservative majority government with 81 percent probability.

As of now, the market remains a heavily biased towards not only most seat win by the Conservatives but a Conservative government with Theresa May as the Prime Minister. The reaction could be very volatile should that not happen.