The United Kingdom 10-year gilts gained for third straight day on Thursday as the recent polls show the outcome of the referendum is too close to call, raising the possibility that Britain might leave the EU after 43 years of membership in the bloc. The 10-year gilt yield fell 3 bps to 1.40 pct as of 8:13 a.m. in London on Thursday, down from 1.96 pct at the end of 2015. It touched a record-low 1.226 pct on February 11.

“A Brexit would probably boost the securities, though there is much uncertainty”, said Seamus Mac Gorain, London-based global fixed-income portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, which oversees about $1.7 trillion globally.

“Some say it will cause a loss of confidence in the U.K. among foreign investors and increase risk premia on gilts and therefore push up yields, while some think the BOE will ease and this will be bullish for gilts and push down yields,” he added.

Gilts returned 4.8 pct this quarter through Wednesday, compared with gains of 2.9 pct for U.S. Treasuries and 3.8 pct for German bonds, considering U.K. sovereign bonds as the best performers among developed nations this year as the inevitable referendum on EU membership prompts demand for safe assets.

We see Gilt future should trade around 0-10 ticks higher than the previous settlement price of 120.86. The Gilt market has been devoid of any domestic data to focus on earlier this week but this is corrected today as we have a reasonable amount of UK economic releases. 

Lastly, unless there is any significant surprise in the data then the market is likely to be quiet ahead of tomorrows far more significant US non-farm payroll data.