U.K. economic growth likely decelerated in Q4 2019 - Wells Fargo

The U.K. GDP growth data for the fourth quarter is set to release tomorrow. According to a Wells Fargo research report, the U.K. economy likely finished 2019 on a soft note, partially due to Brexit uncertainty and ahead of the U.K. December general election. Monthly activity indicators and several confidence surveys imply weak fourth quarter growth after a gain of 0.4 percent quarter-on-quarter growth in the third quarter.

“For Q4 we expect that GDP was flat on a sequential basis. That would see Q4 GDP slow to 0.9 percent year-over-year, which would be the slowest pace of growth since early 2010. The release will also include details on the U.K. economy both by expenditure breakdown and by industry sector”, said Wells Fargo.

Consumer spending is likely to have risen 0.1 percent quarter-on-quarter, while investment spending is expected to have dropped 0.2 percent.

“We also anticipate that industrial activity fell during Q4, while we see services activity as having been broadly flat. While the Bank of England has become more dovish recently, we think it will take more soft data before the central bank more seriously considers lowering interest rates”, added Wells Fargo.