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UK gilts rise modestly on weak industrial production

The UK gilts traded modestly firmer Tuesday after recent data showed that industrial production fell unexpectedly in September following the Brexit vote.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year gilts, which moves inversely to its price, fell 1 basis point to 1.20 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yield dipped 1 basis point to 1.87 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year slid ½ basis point to 0.192 percent by 11:00 GMT.

The September headline UK IP disappoints, falling by 0.4 percent m/m when a 0.1 percent m/m rise was expected. But this camouflages the underlying strength revealed by a higher than expected 0.6 percent m/m increase in manufacturing output.

So the quarterly IP decline of -0.5 percent q/q in Q3 is a smidgen worse than the -0.4 percent q/q rate used by the ONS in its initial estimate for output-based Q3 GDP, but is too small to have any material effect on the overall GDP estimate.

The Bank of England (BoE) left monetary policy unchanged at the November meeting that concluded on last Thursday, maintaining a more hawkish tone than what was anticipated by market participants. The board shifted from an easing bias to a neutral bias, saying that it "can respond in either direction".

Economic data has remained remarkably resilient to the Brexit uncertainties while the steep GBP depreciation means that CPI inflation will increase sharply next year. It seems that the BoE is quite satisfied that its actions have supported the economy and moved inflation back to higher levels consistent with the 2 percent target.

The BoE now expects higher short-term real GDP growth as economic data so far has been resilient. The bank also expects CPI inflation to be higher than the August projections as the GBP has depreciated further. The BoE expects CPI inflation to peak just below 3 percent in the coming years.

Meanwhile, the FTSE 100 traded 0.14 percent higher at 6,816.50 by 11:00 GMT.

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