In March, UK’s retail sales, excluding auto fuels, declined 1.6% m/m. Time changing timing of Easter and the weather during that weekend is usually noted as the element disturbing the trend. In 2016, the Easter period witnessed increase in food sales; however, it was countered by “record declines in fashion categories”. According to the BRC survey, nominal sales were flat on a year-on-year basis in March as well as in April. Shop price deflation in both months was also the same at -1.7% y/y.
This suggests that real sales grew 1.7% y/y in both the months, noted Societe Generale in a research report. The official retail sales ex autos is expected to have grown 0.5% m/m in April, added Societe Generale. However, the official data and BRC relationship is not perfect.
“Reports sales fell from 7 to -13 but sales for the time of year only moved from 1 to 0. Taking all the evidence into account, we predict a modest bounce in sales of 0.3% mom”, said Societe Generale.
