UK retail sales strong but not that strong!

The first information on retail sales in (early) June will be given by the CBI Distributive Trades survey. The balance actually weakened from 18 to 12 in April and then, even more surprising, it surged to 51 in May.

We can only assume that for some reason survey respondents were making rather loose timing comparisons. Whatever the explanation, the reading of 51 is far above the long term average and looks unsustainable. 

Thus, despite the very strong consumer fundamentals (high consumer confidence, rising real income) the balance is expected to fall sharply in June.