UK retail sales trend firm but not clear surveys will show that

The drivers of UK consumption are strong - real income is growing and consumer confidence is atcycle highs, supported in part by the continuing strong upward trend in employment.

Therefore we need not read much into the recent disappointment in the March retail sales datawhich showed sales ex auto fuels rising by only 0.2% mom. 

The CBI balance of reported sales jumped from 1 in February to 18 in March. The volume of retail sales surged by 1.6% mom in April 2014 which will be hard to match this year and so the CBI balance is expected to fall.